Water AlliesTier 2
at 店冠賽
decks
1
(3.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-3-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.9%
avg ELO -2.0 per match
expected value
45.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1256
· median 1256
· range 1256–1256
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1225
Q1 1298
Q3 1450
1591
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 13.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +3.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.5% | -2.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
